区域产业发展视角的农业综合开发影响评估——基于对蔬菜产业的干预效应分析

【目的】通过定量方法准确评估农业综合开发对区域优势产业发展的影响有重要意义。【方法】从农业综合开发对蔬菜产业的项目干预效应入手,以县级为单位,将当年农业综合开发项目扶持内容包括蔬菜产业的县级单位划分为干预组,其他为控制组。采用可以有效解决样品选择偏差的倾向得分匹配方法,通过引入协变量、平衡检验、匹配等步骤,在控制组中找到与干预组成员单位特征相似的成员,构建反事实研究框架。【结果】结果得出,项目干预组比控制组区域的蔬菜播种面积占比高出1~3个百分点,说明农业综合开发项目对蔬菜产业的扶持对蔬菜播种面积的扩大有促进作用,利于蔬菜产业壮大。通过协变量影响力分析得出,地区的蔬菜生产优势是最重要的影响因素,从侧面证明了农业综合开发项目的扶持方向紧跟区域优势的政策宗旨。【结论】可见,通过有方向性的农业综合开发项目实施扶持特定产业对促进区域优势产业发展和实现农业结构优化是有效的。     

科学、价值与判断在环境影响评估架构中之整合

公共政策研拟，尤其是环境影响评估，不仅牵涉技术性科学层面，同时涵盖社会性价值评估与政策性决策判断。旨在探讨如何将科学、价值与判断等因素合理融合于环境影响评估作业过程中，并据此研拟一环境影响评估架构，作为中国台湾地区环保部门开发案审核依据之参考。本文所研拟之环境影响评估架构的理论基础包括社会选择理论、社会判断理论及多属性评估方法。通过社会选择理论分析环境政策制定的机制；通过社会判断理论解释科学与价值如何整合于政策制定及其可行性中；而通过多属性评估方法建立开发案评选的集体决策技术。以山坡地开发为例说明此架构在实践中的应用。     

Assessing data quality: A managerial call to action

While awareness of data quality has increased in recent years, there have been very few studies on the actual level of data quality within organizations. This article outlines the analysis of 75 data quality assessments collected over the course of 2 years from a wide range of organizations, data sets, and business processes. The results reveal that data is in far worse shape than most managers realize. On average, 47% of recently created data records have at least one critical error. High-quality data is the exception, with only 3% of the DQ scores rated acceptable (≥97%). Indeed, the results suggest an unhealthy organizational tolerance of bad data and underscore the magnitude of improvement organizations need to make in order to be truly effective in the knowledge economy. By providing a unique insight and benchmark for data quality practitioners, this article serves as a call-to-action for all organizations—regardless of size and type—to determine their level of data quality. Finally, we set out a typology that presents a categorical scheme to promote preemptive actions against the most frequent types of data error.     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

Health state utilities associated with caring for an individual with cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL)

Abstract

Aim

Cutaneous T-cell Lymphoma (CTCL) is a rare form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma characterized by skin lesions, which can negatively impact the quality of life of both patients and their caregivers. The Decision Support Unit (DSU) at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK recently outlined a rationale for the inclusion of caregiver burden in economic evaluations. This study aimed to estimate utilities for health states associated with being a caregiver for an individual with CTCL at different stages of treatment.     

基于目标值的土地警素指标的预警研究 ——以上海市土地类指标为例

研究目的:探寻基于目标值的土地运行关键指标预警研究的方法,及时提出警戒信息与调控措施。研究方法:采用趋势预测法对警素指标的未来值进行预测,用年均增长率函数倒推法确定目标值倒推值,结合预测值与目标值倒推值确定2015—2020年弹性警界线,采用统计误差理论所得出3σ法则来确定警度界限的区间,采用景气信号灯法判别警情,黄色信号灯表示轻警、红色信号灯重警,采用情景分析法分析不同减量化目标下警情的变化趋势。研究结果:上海市建设用地总规模若按减量递增10%,则2018年后需要保持零增长,若减量递增30%,则增量还有一定上行空间;工业用地占比的预测值在未来5年内都处于红色预警,但警情有较为合理的自下降趋势。研究结论:建设用地应遵循"五量并举"的调控思路,努力实现规划建设用地"负增长"目标;而工业用地则通过加强分类引导,采取二次开发、复合利用等措施,优化用地结构,使工业用地占比回落到正常区间。单一警素指标预警适用于时间序列较长且有目标值的指标,未来的研究重点应在单项预警的基础上,构建以土地要素为核心的多要素安全综合预警体系。     

Planning road networks in landslide-prone areas: A case study from the northern forests of Iran

Road development in mountainous forestlands can lead to naturally formed slopes being disturbed. Efficient planning methodologies can assist forest engineers in either preventing or reducing the environmental impacts of forest roads. In this study, we first prepared an inclusive landslide susceptibility map for our study area using a Bayesian model. We next designed 12 road network alternatives using PEGGER, an ArcView GIS extension. We extracted the values of these alternatives from the susceptibility map to evaluate their environmental feasibility. We also evaluated the alternatives from an economic perspective using a model for conducting cost estimates of the forest roads. Our results show that this approach is useful for identifying the alternative that meets environmental and economic goals. The policy implications of this study suggest that if the development of road networks in mountainous areas is an important forestry goal, mechanisms should be aimed primarily at controlling slope instability.     

Transport impacts of government employment decentralization in an Australian city – Testing scenarios using transport simulation

Australia's largest cities are more mono-centric than most US cities and may be over-centralising, particularly in terms of office employment. Government worker relocation programs are being employed with policy debate over what should be an ideal urban structure including in terms of travel behaviour. The paper explores research approaches to explore transport impacts of employment decentralization. A review shows the results of: surveys of workers moved to suburban locations; longitudinal analyses of transport and land use changes in city-regions using cross-sectional census or HTS data; comparative analysis of urban structure variables across cities using similar datasets; combinations of longitudinal and comparative research; and, scenario-based modelling approaches. A modelling framework is then developed to appraise the possible transport impacts of decentralization in Brisbane. To test the possibilities further, two decentralization scenarios modelled and compared. Decentralization mostly to middle-suburban locations better addresses jobs-housing balance and maximises proposed new public transport services, producing good transport outcomes. However, decentralization to outer-suburban locations in Brisbane exacerbates the propensity for decentralization to increase travel distances, especially by car.     

高校思想政治理论课考核方式改革探析——以毛泽东思想和中国特色社会主义理论体系概论课程为例

增强思想政治理论课的实效性是目前高校思想政治理论课改革面临的主要现实问题。改革和完善思想政治理论课考核方式,其意义在于通过考核方式改革带动教育教学方式的改革,实现教与学良性互动,从而增强思想政治理论课的实效性。文章以河北工业大学毛泽东思想和中国特色社会主义理论体系概论课程为例,对其考核评价体系的改革进行分析和总结,以期达到更好的育人效果。